Upcoming Government Reports & Holidays
|1-Oct||CONSTRUCTION SPENDING||10:00 AM|
|4-Oct||MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENT…||10:00 AM|
|5-Oct||EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT||8:30 AM|
|5-Oct||INTERNATIONAL TRADE REPORT||8:30 AM|
|5-Oct||U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SE…||8:30 AM|
|8-Oct||— COLUMBUS DAY —||—|
|10-Oct||MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES…||10:00 AM|
|10-Oct||PRODUCER PRICE INDEX REPORT||8:30 AM|
|11-Oct||CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT||8:30 AM|
|15-Oct||ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL…||8:30 AM|
|15-Oct||MANUFACTURING & TRADE: INVENTORIES…||10:00 AM|
|17-Oct||NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION||8:30 AM|
|24-Oct||NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES||10:00 AM|
|25-Oct||ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS||8:30 AM|
|25-Oct||ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT||8:30 AM|
|26-Oct||GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT||8:30 AM|
|31-Oct||— HALLOWEEN —||—|
Key Events That Moved the Market in September 2018
Above: S&P 500 Daily Chart: Sep 4 to Sep 21, 2018
- US stock indices initially declined and bounced from its lows to close virtually near its open; trade concerns may have affected investor sentiment.
- August ISM, expected to be 54.5 exceeded consensus at 61.3
- August PMI at 54.7 fell within consensus range.
- Positive investors sentiment from a low global interest rate environment and strong US corporate earnings seems to be supporting US stock indices.
- Stock indices declined as fears increased that the US might escalate tariffs on China later in the week.
- Trade talks between the US and Canada are expected to take place this week.
- China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 1.7%; US markets, although lower, continue to outperform China’s.
- President Trump’s plan to impose an additional $200 billion tariff on Chinese goods may have weighed on investors.
- In response, China warned of retaliation should new tariff measures be introduced by the US.
- Jobless claims fell by 10,000, the lowest it had seen since December 1969.
- The ADP Employment Report showed an increase of 163,000 jobs in August.
- PMI report showed that growth had slowed in August to a solid 54.8 which is slightly below consensus expectations.
- Indices declined further when the Employment Situation report showed an increase in both wage growth and hiring, indicating that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates.
- US markets opened higher as hopes for a new round of tax cuts–a plan dubbed Tax Reform 2.0, to be unveiled later in the week–overshadowed trade tensions.
- July consumer credit increased above expectations to $16.6 billion.
- Chinese exports weakened to below 10% in August, down from 12% the previous month.
- Indices opened lower as concerns over US-China trade tensions continued.
- But the JOLTS report, which showed that job openings surged in August (6.939 million), and the business optimism index both exceeded expectations, potentially countering the initial selling pressure on markets.
- Markets closed relatively unchanged.
- Producer inflation in August came in below expectations as PPI declined 0.1%.
- Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations came in 0.1% higher than expected at 2.2%.
- Crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels.
- Markets are higher after China announced that it may be holding a new round of trade talks with the US.
- Consumer prices (CPI) fell within consensus while food and energy prices came in 0.1% below expectations.
- Labor markets continued to show signs of strength as jobless claims fell to 204,000, beating expectations of 210,000.
- Retail sales increased 0.1% from August, well below economist expectations of 0.4%.
- Industrial output increased, coming in within expectations.
- US import prices decreased by 0.6%, lower than what economists had expected.
- Consumer sentiment jumped to 100.8, well above consensus expectations of 97.00
- Markets were up overall, with hopes of continued trade talks and global low interest rate environment serving as dominant factors in supporting US stock indices.
- Markets are down, primarily due to news that China might retaliate if Trump announces new tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
- News that the White House plans to impose a smaller levy of 10% on Chinese goods may have given rise to optimism in global markets.
- Though confidence among the nation’s homebuilders remain low, the Housing Market Index met consensus estimates of 67.
- US index market action was generally muted.
- Housing starts jumping by 9.2% to 1.282 million while building permits fell by 5.7% to 1.229 million last month.
- S&P 500 advanced to new historical highs despite the lack of any news other than the jobless claims report which was overall bullish.
- All four jobless claims readings fell to record lows and far below consensus expectations.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 201k as compared with an expected 210k; new claims were at -3,000, beating expectations of only -1,000.
- Many analysts seem to be at a loss to explain the US stock market advance in light on the ongoing geopolitical trade tensions.
- S&P 500 advanced to new highs overnight on no news.