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|Mar 01||CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT|
|Mar 06||MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS REPORT|
|Mar 07||FOREIGN TRADE REPORT|
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|Mar 07||US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES REPORT|
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|Mar 19||NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION REPORT|
|Mar 25||NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES REPORT|
|Mar 26||ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS|
|Mar 27||ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT|
Key Events That Moved the Market in Feb 2019
The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart from Feb 1 to Feb 22, 2019
- US Indices advanced due to stronger than expected U.S. employment report, with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 304,000 jobs in January.
- This number not only exceeded forecasts but marked the largest gain since February 2018.
- The factory orders report declined by -0.6%, a few points below consensus expectation.
- Despite the sluggish start, indices advanced later in the afternoon with optimism that Q4 corporate earnings and 2019 outlook are off to a good start.
- ISM non-manufacturing sample reports sustainable and solid growth, at 56.7, which is within economist expectation.
- With news relatively light, markets may have risen due to support from S&P 500 Q4 results showing an average earnings growth rate of 12.4%.
- U.S. and China will start another round of trade talks next week.
- Nearly 71% of over half of the S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 results have exceeded profit expectations.
- Despite this, analysts are reducing their earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2019.
- S&P 500 in January has been its strongest in over 30 years, a sign of potential market strength.
- U.S. indices fell due to weak economic news from Europe.
- Selling pressure may have been limited due to hopes that the US and China might be able to reach a trade deal in the upcoming talks.
- Initial jobless claims declined 19,000 to 234,000, higher than the 225,000 estimate.
- U.S. stock index futures advanced in anticipation of the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China in Beijing.
- Some analysts have expressed optimism that a trade deal may be reached by March 1.
- No major news today.
- US indices advanced somewhat slightly as the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China began in Beijing.
- 71.5% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results have exceeded analyst estimates.
- US indices advanced as lawmakers reached a tentative deal to avert yet another partial government shutdown.
- Indices were also supported by expressed optimism on progress with the US-China trade talks.
- Markets moved higher despite reports that the National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index continued its decline for a fifth straight month, falling to 101.2 in January from 104.4 a month ago. Economists were expecting a higher reading of 102.
- Job openings, as revealed in the latest JOLTS report, continue to accelerate much faster than hiring, up 3.1 percent to a 7.335 million, exceeding economist expectations of 6.900 million.
- Indices advanced partly on a report that President Trump intends to sign the border security deal to avoid another partial government shutdown.
- Additionally, markets were supported on optimism over the U.S.-China trade discussions.
- President Trump mentioned that he’s willing to relax the March 1 deadline if he and President Xi were close to an agreement.
- CPI remained unchanged, though, core prices grew 0.2% from December.
- Indices traded higher overnight due to signs of potential progress in U.S.-China trade talks.
- Several times during the week, President Donald Trump mentioned that discussions are going “very well.”
- Several sources are reporting that President Trump is may be extending the March 1 deadline by another 60 days in order to comprehensively iron out a trade deal.
- But indices quickly fell after a report that retail sales recorded their largest decline of 1.2% in more than nine years in December. Economists were expecting to see an increase rather than a decline.
- Jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 239,000, higher than consensus expectations.
- Indices continued trading higher on signs that progress in the Beijing trade talks is being made.
- Officials from both countries are planning to continue their talks in Washington next week.
- The NY Federal Reserves Empire State Manufacturing survey came in at 8.8, up from January’s reading of 3.9, and better than economist expectations of 7.1.
- The cost of US imports fell by 0.5% in January from the previous month. Economists forecasted a 0.3% decrease.
- Contrary to expectation of a rise in January industrial production, the report shows that it was down by 0.6%, and capacity utilization was 78.2% when 78.8% was anticipated.
- The end of the government shutdown helped Consumer Sentiment, which came in above consensus at 95.5.
- US Presidents Day
- Stocks opened lower after the EU threatened to retaliate if the US follows through with their threat to levy tariffs on imported EU goods.
- Indices continued advancing when President Trump said trade talks with China were going well, suggesting the possibility of pushing the deadline beyond March 1 to complete negotiations.
- Housing market index came in better than expected at 62. indicating recovery and strength in present sales–attributable by no small measure to low mortgage rates.
- Stock gains were subdued due to a few earnings reports that were more or less downbeat.
- Overall, stock market performance has been strong despite the current geopolitical environment surrounding it, a potential sign of long-term strength.
- US market lower today following a negative trading session in Europe plus some weaker-than-expected US economic data.
- Durable goods orders increased 1.2% in December, but the figure was smaller than the 1.5% gain that economists had expected.
- Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 216,000.
- Philadelphia Federal Reserve business index in February came in at -4.1, significantly lower than the expected consensus figure of 14.1.
- PMI composite came in at 55.8, though on a manufacturing level the figure came in at the lower end of 53.7 (consensus at 54.3) indicating potential “soft spot” in client demand, signalling a slowing in production most likely due to the current global economic slowdown.
- Existing home sales report came in slightly lower than expectations at 4.94 million (where 5.04 million was expected).
- Stocks moved higher today as signs that progress on trade offset the seemingly worsening global outlook.
- No major economic news or reports came in on this Friday.